Analysis of the Status Quo and Trend of the Operation of Machinery Industry

I. Current Economic Operation of Machinery Industry

(I) Production and sales have been operating smoothly, and the recovery rate is higher than that of industrial production in the country: In 2013, the machinery industry ended the state that the growth rate of added value was lower than that of the national industry. From January to December, the growth rate of the value-added of machinery industry was 10.9%, which was 1.2% higher than that of the national industry. In December, it was 12.7%, which was 3% higher than the national industry.

Sales: The main business income of machinery industry grew steadily. The increase in each month in 2013 was between 12% and 13%. The cumulative increase in main business income in each month was higher than the national average.

(II) The difference in output growth between the main sub-industries and products is evident in the increase in output of nearly 60% of the 64 main products. Among the 64 major machinery industry products announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, 39 products with a year-on-year increase in output from January to December accounted for 60.9%, and 25 products with a year-on-year decrease in output, accounting for 39.06%.

Specifically, the output of agricultural machinery products, passenger cars, instrumentation, and other industries and products in the auto industry showed good growth. The output of typical investment products such as machine tools, construction machinery, heavy machinery, and power generation equipment fell sharply, and companies in related industries suffered more difficulties than in the previous year. Excavators, metal cutting machine tools, metal rolling equipment, etc. fell significantly, but the trend of decline slowed down month by month.

Agricultural machinery industry: This year is the 10th year of implementation of the agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy. Agricultural machinery products, driven by the continued implementation of the national agricultural machinery subsidy policy, the output of most products kept growing. However, the main products of agricultural machinery increased or decreased. Among them, small and medium sized tractors and primary processing machinery for agricultural products continued to grow, and large-scale tractors and special equipment for feed production decreased year-on-year.

Tractor production: The increase in the output of large tractors in each month of 2013 was generally lower than the increase in the previous month. From January to December, the output of large tractors was 63,300 units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.66%; the output of medium-sized tractors was 521,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.92%; the output of small tractors was 1,940,000 units, an increase of 4.91% year-on-year. The growth rate of small and medium-sized tractors was higher than that of large-scale tractors.

Automobile industry:

Automobiles: In 2013, automobile production and sales crossed 20 million steps, creating a new global record. In 2013, the nationwide automobile production and sales volume was 22,116,800 and 21.8791 million units, which was an increase of 14.8% and 13.9% respectively from the previous year and an increase of 10.2% and 9.6% respectively over the previous year.

Construction Machinery Industry:

In 2012, the output of construction machinery products was lower than that of 2011. In 2013, the production and sales of main products of construction machinery showed a steady upward trend. From January to December, the output of excavation shovel transportation machinery increased by 2.05% year-on-year. Among them, the output of excavators was 148,900 units, an increase of 1.4% year-on-year, and it turned positive for the first time during the year. The output of the loader was 189,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.85%.

Machine Tool Industry:

In 2013, the machine tool industry was at a low level and was in a state of operation. The utilization rate of production was low, and the overall market size shrank; the market competition was fierce and the profit rate continued to decline; the export of machine tools showed no obvious improvement, and imports that sustained growth for a long time also fell significantly.

Machine Tool Production: In 2013, machine tool output continued its declining trend in 2012, but the decline narrowed month by month. From January to December, the output of metal cutting machine tools was 725,900 units, which was a year-on-year decrease of 1.54%, of which the output of CNC machine tools was 209,300 units, an increase of 2.16% year-on-year. From the trend, the increase in the output of CNC machine tools in the second half of 2013 was higher than that of gold-cutting machine tools. Affected by the previous year's base.

Electrical appliance industry:

In 2013, the electrical industry entered a period of medium-term growth. From January to December, the main business income and profit growth of the electrical industry were all higher than those of the same period of last year.

Power generation equipment output: In 2013, power generation equipment continued its downward trend in the previous year. From January to December, the production of power generation equipment was 127 million kilowatts, a year-on-year decrease of 4.82%. Among them, hydro-generator units and turbine-generator units decreased by 4.75% and 8.34% year-on-year, and wind turbine generators increased by 9.61% year-on-year.

Automobile industry:

Automobiles: In 2013, automobile production and sales crossed 20 million steps, creating a new global record. In 2013, the nationwide automobile production and sales volume was 22,116,800 and 21.8791 million units, which was an increase of 14.8% and 13.9% respectively from the previous year and an increase of 10.2% and 9.6% respectively over the previous year.

(III) Increased profits faster than production and sales In January-November, machinery industry realized a total profit of RMB 1,215 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.68%, which was 2.22 percentage points higher than the increase in main business revenue during the same period (13.46%); in November, the total profit of the machinery industry was 1,627.17. Billion yuan, a new high for the year, increased 19.26% year-on-year, 2.22 percentage points higher than the increase in main business revenue (17.04%) for the same period.

(IV) Indicators reflecting efficiency continued to slightly improve the main economic indicators reflecting the benefits. The contribution rate of total assets and the cost-to-cost margin for the first 7 months all decreased year-on-year. August began to increase year-on-year. From January to November, the industry's profit margin was 6.65%, and the profit rate calculated based on profit from main business was 6.4%, which was lower than the industry's profit margin by 0.25 percentage points. The total asset contribution rate was 13.91%, the cost-cost margin was 7.18%, and the asset-liability ratio was 56.17%. It continued to decline, and the above indicators continued to improve.

(5) The increase in the cost of three items has fallen, and the increase in the three categories of inventory keeping costs has decreased significantly compared with the increase in the previous year. From January to November 2013, the company's sales expenses increased 13.33% year-on-year, 3.69 percentage points lower than the same period of the previous year (9.64%), and the financial expenses increased by 4.98% year-on-year, of which interest expenses increased by 6.18%, both increased from the same period of the previous year (32.42% ), (32.62%) fell more than 26%. From January to November, the administrative expenses increased 12.21% year-on-year, which was 3 percentage points lower than the same period of last year.

The growth of corporate inventory and finished products remained low. From January to November, the company's inventory increased by 6.83% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2% from the same period of last year, which was 7.03%. The finished goods in inventory increased by 6.13%, 2% higher than the same period of last year. From the increase in finished goods in inventory and inventories, there has been a slight increase in recent months.

(VI) Investment growth rate continued to fall sharply The trend tended to stabilize In 2013, the trend of continued decline in the growth rate of investment in machinery industry tended to be stable. The accumulative growth rate for each month was generally around 16%. In 2013, the total investment in fixed assets of the machinery industry was 3.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.16% year-on-year, and a slight decrease of 0.29 percentage points from January-November (17.45%).

The investment fluctuated in the month. Investment growth continued to fall in the months of November, November and December, and investment in the month fell back from the October high of 26.32% to 9.91% in December, down 16%.

Second, the main features of the economic operation of the machinery industry

(I) Rapid growth of private enterprises From January to November, there were 59,000 private enterprises in the machinery industry, accounting for 78.38% of the total number of machinery industry enterprises. Private enterprises' main business income was 10.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.36% over the same period of last year. The average level of the mechanical industry was 1.9 percentage points, which was 4.75, 5.48 percentage points higher than that of state-owned and foreign-funded enterprises, accounting for 56.74% of the total, an increase of 1.31 percentage points from the previous year, and a contribution rate of 63.69% to the main business income of the machinery industry; Privately-owned enterprises realized a total profit of 640.246 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.31%, which was 3.39 and 0.29 percentage points higher than that of state-owned and foreign-funded enterprises, accounting for 52.69% of the total, and contributed 54.52% to the profits of the machinery industry. From January to November, private enterprises exported a total of 11.75 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 15.27%, which was 9.54 percentage points higher than the average level of the machinery industry over the same period, accounting for 34.78%, up 2.88 percentage points over the previous year.

In recent years, private enterprises in the overseas investment of mechanical enterprises have become more and more active. Private enterprises such as Sany Group, TBEA, Dalian Machine Tool, Wanxiang Group and Geely Group have repeatedly appeared in some famous overseas mergers and acquisitions cases. In the fixed assets investment, the privately-held company invested 2,274.978 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%, which was 3.55% higher than the average level of the machinery industry over the same period, accounting for 74.64% of the investment in the machinery industry, an increase of 2.19 percentage points over the same period of the previous year.

(II) Regional structural adjustment continued to advance From January to November, the main business income of machinery enterprises in the central and western regions increased by 15.46% and 18.61% year-on-year, respectively, which was 3.38 and 6.53 percentage points higher than that of the eastern region. From the proportion, the central and western regions aggregated. The proportion of the main business income of the machinery industry was 32.76%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous year. The proportion of profit in the central and western regions was 31.65%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points from the previous year. From the perspective of completion of regional investment, the growth rate in the central region was higher than that in other regions, and the proportion of the increase was 0.63 percentage points higher than the previous year.

(III) The continuous change of export structure The proportion of processing trade has decreased, and the proportion of general trade has increased. The proportion of processing trade in total exports has decreased from 55.31% in 2003 to 35.7% in 2012 and 33.4% in January-November 2013; at the same time, the proportion of general trade exports has increased significantly. Exports of products with relatively high technology intensity and added value started to exert force. Exports of mechanical products with high added value such as power generation equipment, engineering machinery, and automobiles have grown rapidly. The foreign investment regions of the Chinese machinery industry include Germany, the United States, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, France, Britain, Poland, Singapore, Australia, Canada, and the Czech Republic.

Third, the main problems in the current economic operation of the machinery industry

From the perspective of economic performance, the main problems in the current economic operation of the machinery industry are still insufficient demand and weak innovation capabilities.

(I) Accumulated order recovery of major enterprises at the end of the year recovered, but performance varies by industry. Since 2013, the accumulated orders from key-linked enterprises in the machinery industry have improved somewhat from the year-ago-year-on-year decline, but overall, orders are still insufficient. The greatest difficulty encountered. From January to December 2013, the accumulated orders of key enterprises in the machinery industry increased by 12.47% year-on-year. Although they showed slight increase month by month, the increase in ordering performance was uneven in various sub-industries, and some industries were still insufficient, such as the machine tool industry and heavy mining industry. Machinery industry, construction machinery, part of power generation equipment companies and parts manufacturing companies.

(II) The decline in the profitability of the main business of the company The downward trend in the profit rate of the machinery industry has now fallen from the historical high of 8.38% (the number of annual reports) in 2010 at the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” to January-November this year. 6.65% (Express number). In particular, the profit growth of main activities is not optimistic. From January to November, the profit from main activities of machinery industry increased by 6.93%, which was lower than the growth rate of total profits by 8.75 percentage points.

(III) Increase in account receivables, the pressure of capital occupation was larger January to November accounts receivable amounted to 3,177.9 billion yuan, a new high in the same period in recent years, a year-on-year increase of 15.35%, accounts receivable accounted for the proportion of main business income 17.4 %, which accounted for as much as 32% of current assets over the same period, and the pressure on corporate back payments was high.

(4) The price index of mechanical products continued to be low. This year, the price index of the machinery industry continued its downward trend in the previous year. As of December 2013, the monthly price index of the machinery industry has remained below 100% for 25 months, and the cumulative price index has remained below 100% for 24 months. From the trend, the price index of the machinery industry in December was 98.7% in the month, accumulating 98.6%.

IV. Forecast of Industry Development in 2014

It is expected that the new demand in the machinery industry market will stabilize at a low level in 2014. Conventional power generation equipment, metallurgical and mining equipment, heavy machinery, general machine tools and other industries will continue to be in a state of weak demand; the demand for high-end machine tools, robots, and automatic production lines will increase; the construction machinery market will recover, gradually returning to normal from ups and downs; automobiles and agricultural machinery The growth rate of production and sales will gradually decline, but the large-scale high-end agricultural machinery products market will still be prosperous.

The forecast of the development speed of the machinery industry in 2014: The growth rate of production and sales will be approximately 13%, the increase of profits will be approximately 10%, and the increase of export earnings will generally be between 5-8%.