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**On McKinsey’s E-Bike Market Analysis**
McKinsey recently released a comprehensive analysis of the e-bike market, highlighting a dramatic shift in the industry. The report states, “Improbable as it may seem, e-bikes could finally be having their day.†It goes on to note that the sector has momentum, with one particularly striking figure: “The market for two-wheel EVs (E2Ws) and three-wheel EVs (E3Ws) was valued at around $97 billion, or 4 percent of global auto sales.â€
This number is especially significant when compared to previous estimates. Before 2020, the global e-bike market was estimated at around $16 billion in 2016, with a forecast to reach $25 billion by 2025. Now, McKinsey reports an annual sales value of $97 billion—six times higher in just four years. Furthermore, the analysts predict that this market could nearly double to $150 billion by 2022, signaling a major boom.
So what's driving this growth? McKinsey points to several converging trends: stricter emissions regulations, technological innovation, and changes in consumer behavior, especially due to the pandemic. As people avoid public transport, e-bikes are becoming a more attractive alternative. Governments worldwide are also pushing for cleaner transportation, with some countries banning internal combustion engines as early as 2030.
But can these numbers be trusted? Many e-bike manufacturers and distributors we’ve spoken with in the U.S., EU, and China have reported sales increases ranging from 50% to 500%. For example, Dutch brand VanMoof saw a 10x growth in 24 months, while Delfast also experienced over 10x growth during the same period. This aligns with McKinsey’s findings.
Meanwhile, the bike-sharing model has struggled. Companies like Jump (acquired by Uber) went bankrupt, and Ofo, once the largest bike-sharing company, filed for bankruptcy in 2018. These challenges suggest that the future of e-mobility lies not in shared bikes, but in personal ownership.
Investors are taking notice too. VanMoof raised $40 million in September, bringing its total funding to $73 million. Cowboy (Belgium) secured €23 million, and Seattle-based Rad Power received $25 million. These investments indicate growing confidence in the sector.
Another key factor is the falling cost of batteries, which account for about 40% of an e-bike’s price. McKinsey forecasts battery costs to drop from $220–280 per kWh to $90–130 per kWh, making e-bikes even more affordable.
Environmental benefits are also a big draw. Electric two- and three-wheelers have already avoided more pollutants than all electric cars combined in 2018. With governments aiming to reduce carbon footprints by 65–70%, e-bikes are seen as a viable solution.
Looking ahead, McKinsey outlines several potential paths for the market. These include modular platforms for B2C sales, sharing models, and new business strategies such as leasing, credit options, and battery-as-a-service (BaaS). The BaaS model, used successfully in projects like Gogoro in Taiwan, allows users to swap batteries quickly, offering convenience and flexibility.
In terms of product development, e-bikes are expected to feature advanced technologies like mileage tracking, Bluetooth connectivity, real-time navigation, and over-the-air updates. Innovations like combined braking systems and cell balancing will also improve performance and battery life.
However, the situation in Ukraine is still in its early stages. While there are local companies producing e-bikes, the market lacks mass adoption. There is no established supply chain or demand for innovative models like BaaS. Plus, battery standards vary, making it difficult to implement a unified system.
Despite this, there's potential for growth. Ukrainian companies can develop products and export them globally, tapping into the fast-growing e-mobility market. With the right strategy, Ukraine could position itself as a player in this emerging industry.
As McKinsey’s report shows, the e-bike market is no longer a niche sector—it’s a booming industry with huge potential. Whether you're a manufacturer, investor, or consumer, now is the time to take notice.