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BP 2030 World Energy Outlook is the first forward-looking analysis report released by BP. In the past 60 years, BP has published detailed historical data through BP World Energy Statistics.
Approximately 40% increase in primary energy consumption in the next 20 years
According to BP's basic forecast, global primary energy demand will grow at an average annual rate of 1.7% between 2010-2030, although demand growth will slow down after 2020.
In the next 20 years, primary energy consumption will increase by nearly 40%. Energy consumption in non-OECD countries will increase by 68% from the current level by 2030, with an average annual increase of 2.6%, and constitute 93% of the world's energy consumption growth. Relatively speaking, energy consumption in the OECD countries will increase by an average of 0.3% by 2030. After 2020, the per capita energy consumption of the OECD countries will decline at a rate of 0.2% per year. At the same time, energy intensity measured by energy consumption per unit of output will be improved globally, first and foremost among non-OECD countries.
Natural gas will become the fastest growing petrochemical energy According to "BP 2030 World Energy Outlook", the fuel structure will gradually change with the passage of time, diversification of energy sources will be strengthened, and the market share of petroleum will continue to decline for a long period of time. The market share will steadily increase, and non-petrochemical energy such as nuclear energy, hydropower and renewable energy is expected to become the main source of supply growth for the first time. Between 2010 and 2030, the contribution of renewable energy sources, including solar, wind, geothermal, and biomass, to energy growth will increase from 5% to 18%.
The growth of oil (excluding biofuels) has been relatively slow, with an average annual increase of 0.6%. Natural gas has become the fastest growing petrochemical energy and is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.1%, more than three times the former. The contribution of petrochemical energy to primary energy growth Will be reduced from 83% to 64%. Due to the overall slowdown in petrochemical energy, the market share of coal and petroleum may decline. The average annual growth of coal is 1.2%. By 2030, it is basically equal to the energy provided by petroleum (without biofuels). Demand for oil in OECD countries peaked in 2005 and is expected to return to the 1990 level by 2030. Biofuels will account for 9% of global transportation fuel consumption.
With the rapid development of industrialization, especially China and India, coal market share will increase recently, but this trend will be reversed by 2030. By 2030, the market share of the above three kinds of fossil fuels will converge, each accounting for about 27%. The diversified energy structure is evident in the increase in share. Between 1990 and 2010, fossil fuels accounted for 83% of energy growth, and in the next 20 years, fossil fuels may account for 64% of energy growth. Renewable energy (excluding hydropower) and biofuels will account for 18% of energy growth in 2030.
Substantial growth in biofuels US Brazil dominates Biofuel production is expected to increase from 1.8 million barrels per day in 2010 to 6.7 million barrels per day in 2030. Its growth over the next 20 years will be 125% of the increase in the supply of liquid fuel to non-OPEC countries. Continued policy support, high oil prices, and evolving technological innovation will all promote the rapid expansion of biofuels.
The United States and Brazil accounted for about 76% of the world's total biofuel production in 2010, but as production in the Asia-Pacific region began to rise, this figure will drop to 68% in 2030.
Carbon emission during peak period is 20% higher than in 2005
According to the BP 2030 World Energy Outlook, policies based on climate change and energy security will continue to be based on the status and trends of political commitment in various countries.
Dr. Ruhr pointed out: "With the BP's projected carbon emission policy strengthening, the global carbon emission peak will come soon after 2020, when the carbon emission level is 20% higher than in 2005, higher than the International Energy Agency. The predicted development trend shows that after 2030, we must make more efforts to maintain global emissions within the scope of 'safe'.
Enhanced emission reductions under policy conditions result from accelerated energy efficiency improvements and fuel substitution - from coal to natural gas, from petrochemical energy to nuclear energy, hydropower and renewable energy, including the introduction of carbon capture and storage technologies at fire and natural gas power plants .
Recently, BP released the “BP 2030 World Energy Outlook†in London, England, and BP’s latest prediction of energy trends. Global energy growth in the next 20 years will be mainly concentrated in emerging economies such as China, India, Russia, and Brazil. Energy efficiency will also increase. Speed ​​up. The global carbon emission peak will come soon after 2020, when the carbon emission level is 20% higher than in 2005.