Goldman Sachs predicts that the price of 100 yuan will come true and predicts that oil prices will double in the future.
The current price of international oil has surged to an eye-popping $106 per barrel. On March 7th, U.S. time, the New York crude oil futures hit a record high of $106.54 per barrel, before slightly retreating and closing just above $105. This sharp increase was fueled by a report showing a decline in non-agricultural employment in the U.S. for February, sparking concerns about a potential economic slowdown and raising expectations that the Federal Reserve might continue cutting interest rates.
Goldman Sachs, the renowned investment bank, had previously made a bold prediction back in March 2005 when oil prices were around $47 per barrel. At the time, analysts at Goldman Sachs suggested that oil prices could surge to $105, which many initially dismissed as a "madman’s slang phrase." However, this prediction has now come true, proving that their warnings were not as far-fetched as they once seemed.
If the current price feels shocking, you may be in for even more surprises. Renowned investor Jim Rogers recently warned in Singapore that oil prices could rise significantly, though he couldn't predict exactly how high. He also cautioned that global inflation is likely to worsen, saying, “Everybody has to be prepared and everything will go up.†Rogers added that if conflicts erupt in the Middle East, oil prices could easily reach $200 per barrel.
EU Energy Commissioner Pierre Moscovici (note: corrected from "Bagges" to "Moscovici") also jokingly mentioned that oil prices could climb to $200 per barrel in 2011, citing that prices had doubled in three years since 2004. “A part of what I’m talking about is a joke, but that’s nothing strange,†he said, recalling how Goldman Sachs’ previous prediction was initially met with skepticism.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has once again raised the stakes, warning that in the event of an emergency, oil prices could soar to $200 per barrel in the near future. The bank has also adjusted its long-term price range for oil, increasing the lower bound from $50 to $60 per barrel for the period between 2008 and 2012.
Interestingly, Goldman Sachs is no longer seen as a radical voice in the oil market. In fact, Matt Simmons, chairman of the energy investment firm Simmons & Company, predicted on CNBC’s “Fast Money†that oil prices could reach as high as $378 per barrel. He argued that the U.S. has never fully understood the real value of crude oil, noting that the British benchmark price had reached $9 per gallon, equivalent to $378 per barrel.
It's clear that the oil market is volatile and unpredictable, with multiple credible voices suggesting that prices could rise dramatically in the coming months. As the world continues to grapple with geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and supply constraints, the prospect of oil hitting $200 or even $378 per barrel is no longer just a distant fear—it’s a growing reality.
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