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Influencing factors for the price of titanium dioxide
During the six months of the year, pull-ups rose. Southwest enterprises reversed their gains by 2,900 yuan/ton.
January 2nd, March 1st, April 2nd, May 1st, June 1st, Southwest Dragon Enterprise pulled up 7 times in half a year, and the cumulative increase rate was 2900 yuan/ton. In fact, the price adjustment basis is very simple, mainly with reference to their own inventory positions, the position is high - lower prices, lower positions - price, and each price increase will bring a nationwide large-scale follow-up, its price reference value is evident, The price market is also regaining confidence in the price increase process.
Once the market was "polarized"
In the face of price increases, agents also have bargaining power over the price adjustments of manufacturers. They are also more flexible about the terminal's upward growth. The purpose of stimulating demand through price increases is basically reached. More often than not, the problems faced by holders of goods before the Lunar New Year are "collecting money." They are not collecting money, or they are on the way to collecting money. Near the Lunar New Year, traders and downstream users are stocking slightly, so at this stage, the situation of taking goods by the holders of goods is slightly improved. Titanium dioxide market polarization is obvious, quality, brand better manufacturers, tight supply, production pressure is slightly larger, some orders have been scheduled to the next month or every month, while the third and fourth manufacturers take the goods is still weak, operating rate Still low, according to this rhythm, the wave of price increases in 2016 has a rare continuation, but the purpose of each price increase is only to consolidate the results of the previous price adjustment.
Manufacturers deliberately restrict production to stimulate supply
After several rounds of rising prices, the purpose of stimulating demand through price increase has already been achieved. Some producers use the price increase atmosphere to deliberately restrict production. For example, a production company in East China, three production lines, and only one, “millet "The previous hunger sales model is obvious.
After the Spring Festival, the market for titanium dioxide is not "monkey racing"
After the holiday, the titanium dioxide market after the Spring Festival seems to have just woken up. Some manufacturers have not yet started production. At present, only one manufacturer in the southwestern region, rutile and Ante, has announced that it will increase by RMB 300/tonne and RMB 200/tonne. The atmosphere of the market bullish continued to rise before the holiday, large companies led the atmosphere across the Spring Festival holiday, but then held steady after the small-scale upswing, the post-holiday titanium dioxide market is not "monkey race"? The domestic real single price is mostly old Price-based, the second increase is mostly consolidate the results of the first price adjustment.
The surge in prices in the past six months has escalated products to cover rutile and anatase types. The increase ranged from RMB500/tonne to RMB300/tonne. The domestic market shouted, “I’m sorry, I’m going to go up with the price of Dragonfly. Don't look for me anymore. The actual price level is not far from the ideal price of the carrier. In addition, due to the operating rate and other issues, some manufacturers in a few regions have tight spot supply in the market, and some manufacturers have forecasted the upward adjustment of the outlook.
The implementation of new and old prices interspersed to make the price rise is not optimistic
The domestic titanium dioxide price market not only rises, but also the quality of first-line or better-quality brands is tight. The first-line brands take the lead in “pioneering†and the third- and fourth-tier producers “delay their legsâ€. The market execution price of merchants is universally prevailing: "The old and new prices are interspersed and executed." Generally, the implementation ratio of new and old prices is about 3:7. The price difference is a one-time increase, usually around 500 yuan/ton. Another wave! Even so, titanium dioxide is also "fire flames? D" to limit the supply, large enterprises supply is not tense, the use of limited supply to the outside to create a tight supply of goods atmosphere, for the follow-up market orders and even With continued warming up, other first-line or better-quality manufacturers have tight supply sources. They can't talk about restricting supply and maintaining their status. Don't stop production. At the same time, there are also relatively calm holding companies are not optimistic about the continued rising market outlook, there is no satisfactory demand support, the price of titanium dioxide is also the foundation of the “air castle†instability, the manufacturer's self-proclaimed supply of tension is mostly “transfer library†Due to the overdraft demand of the market, the effect of stimulating purchases is facing the continuous digesting of inventory by distributors and terminals. The direct reflection is that the demand has shrunk. If this is the case, there will be no restrictions on supply.
Why is the titanium dioxide market tight?
Downstream demand has improved. At present, the market for titanium dioxide is in peak demand season, benefiting from policies such as the increase in real estate “restructuring reformsâ€, real estate company development and real estate tax offsets, real estate sales rebound, and the demand for titanium dioxide market is improved. The improvement; 2, the manufacturer's foreign trade priority. The order of supply of foreign trade orders is generally higher, and the response to the domestic market is tight supply. Although the prices are low and the profits are meager, there is a price atmosphere in which domestic prices continue to be explored, and domestic trade is used as foreign trade profit compensation. According to statistics provided by the General Administration of Customs, in May 2016, the export of titanium dioxide in China was 71,231.552 tons, an increase of 50.68% year-on-year, an increase of 27.96%, and the average export price was about US$1541.1/ton, of which the top three export countries were India and the United States. South Korea, from January to May in 2016, total 284,623.731 tons of titanium dioxide, an increase of 24.85%. 3. Producers engage in hunger sales. A few domestic manufacturers use the domestic atmosphere of Xiangyang to deliberately restrict production. For one or several brands of products, the use of hunger to meet the price increase atmosphere to increase their profit ratio; 4, channel manufacturers and downstream users to create inventory. Titanium dioxide market and open up channel, dealers and downstream users are waiting for goods to go up, in addition to rigid demand accidents, blindly manufacturing inventory, prompting suppliers to supply a slight strain on the goods, but to make manufacturers have a firm reason to continue to raise prices; 5, individual manufacturers own reasons. Individual domestic manufacturers, for their own reasons, have their main products manufactured by other manufacturers and are limited by the production capacity of the other party. Production is not high. At present, most large- and medium-sized titanium dioxide manufacturers have exceeded 50% of their orders in May, and the market has continued to show a good trend, exceeding expectations.
Why is titanium dioxide channel business days not so good?
The successive price increases were mainly due to the tight market supply. The main reason for the tight supply was the surge in foreign trade orders. The priority of supply of export orders from manufacturers was generally high. The response to the domestic market was tight supply, although the price was low and the profits were low. , but there is a domestic price trend of continuous exploration prices, using the domestic trade as foreign trade profits compensation. Domestic rise is not everyone's laugh. There are also worries for traders. Manufacturers are actually making real gains. Traders are not strong in the implementation of end-customer price adjustments. They often sacrifice some profits in order to stabilize customers. Traders are The bargaining power of the producer side is still acceptable. If the full amount is implemented, the market situation is indeed not good for traders. Some producers give traders only one-third of the volume, and traders meet the rigid demand of terminals. In this case, it is difficult to ensure that customers do not lose. This part is lost or taken away by competitors or become a manufacturer. Direct customers, a few producers are also using this method to gradually weaken the channel and strengthen the terminal.
Why do titanium dioxide channel makers cut their prices and raise their prices?
Manufacturers only give traders a third of their volume, and traders meet the rigid demand of terminals. In this case, it is difficult to ensure that customers do not lose. This part is lost to customers or taken away by competitors or become manufacturers. Direct customers, a small number of manufacturers are also using such methods to gradually weaken the channel, strengthen the terminal; 2, manufacturers have actually played up, and most of the traders are soft to implement the price, in the face of resisting price increases, often in order to stabilize customers and sacrifice some Profits, traders have bargaining power is still up, if the full amount of execution, traders stunned ah; 3, rutile titanium dioxide depths of the channel up several months, what is missing is low-priced goods, "X" trading platform "in the air" mess, The use of collective procurement and other forms of low-cost speculation, destroying the market price of titanium dioxide per unit of the market, contrary to the price trend, with the cooperation of manufacturers unconsciously moved the regional traders "cake", the platform was abducted by the downstream Clients; 4. A few manufacturers are “seriousâ€, and unlike traders and end-users, the holders are miserable.
Why did the price of titanium dioxide in 2016 fail to rise?
The main reason for the domestic rutile titanium dioxide market to be “valuable without goods†is that foreign trade takes more goods, and foreign trade takes so much goods, mainly because of obvious price advantages. According to statistics provided by the General Administration of Customs, it will be exported from January to May 2016. The total amount was 284,623.731 tons, the total export amount was 426,950,466 dollars, the average export price was 1,500 dollars per ton, and the average ultra-low-cost export amount of 56,900 tons per month made the international giants' expectations for price increases in overseas markets basically frustrated. Made in China Victory.
What happened to the sudden suspension of China Nuclear titanium dioxide?
On May 10, CNNC Titanium Dioxide suspended trading due to major assets-related issues. There were many speculations and most of them focused on “buying and sellingâ€. Business Society chemical branch Titanium dioxide analyst believes: the acquisition side, a huge loss in 2015, how to capital acquisition in 2016? Not to mention the international producers; sales side, regardless of which factory will affect the quality of products, in At present, the situation of tight goods is not realistic, and the buyer must also consider its loss-making reality and buy a company close to ST. The price/performance ratio is worth considering. Coupled with the recent rumor that a manufacturer in East China found a new buyer, I do not know whether the second king will also become a "Lujiazui" new "with salt." It is said that China Nuclear Tire and Titanium intends to acquire film and television assets. The new head of the people's cross-border thinking is indeed bold, this is not disguised as driving the downstream demand?
The anatase market is weak, and the spread between the rutile and the rutile has reached 3,000 yuan/ton.
It is rare that a few producers have surged their orders due to the latest increase in prices, and have intentionally increased again. This has led to an increase of RMB 1,400/ton in less than 20 days. I would like to ask, Is it good to export? Is it good to sell domestically? Is it firm and strong? Most importantly, if you rely on a certain platform for shipping, have you earned money? Not yet working hard for yourself, earning money for others, and finally just refreshing Is it useful for production records? Anatase titanium dioxide has only a weak domestic demand and exports, and it has only met the domestic demand for softness. The loneliness is opposed by the bull market of rutile titanium dioxide. The weak reality makes its mainstream price still around 9,500 yuan/ton. The price difference between rutile and titanium dioxide has increased to 3,000 yuan/ton.
The so-called "e-commerce platform" uses collective procurement to disrupt the market
Another side-effect of the "price-free goods" in the domestic market is the chaos of the price market. In addition to the deliberate confusion caused by the price confusion, there are a lot of so-called "airborne" e-commerce platforms, such as a certain turmoil. Transactional websites that were born, using a form of collective procurement to provoke low prices and destroy the market atmosphere of titanium dioxide unit prices, run counter to the price trend; secondly, using large clients of “Yicheng†to compete with manufacturers for low prices and grab the authorized area The agent’s cake has the suspicion of kidnapping downstream customers. If end customers have purchasing needs, they may not find manufacturers and distributors. Instead, they may look for a website. If they establish a physical trading unit, they can directly “connect with the potâ€. , Platform gains reputation, downstream benefits, manufacturers busy, channel business lost their jobs; Finally, this type of e-commerce platform has serious flaws, such as: no self-payment system, payment links, or fully grafted in a certain On a certain treasure, strictly speaking, it is not pure “e-commerceâ€, while Netsun’s relying on the ecosystem of Netsun’s business treasure is only for Internet companies to do. Things, a purely online transaction system, and a rigorous financing system, will effectively help cooperative companies solve real problems such as expanding the market, reducing the risk of accounts receivable, raising the turnover rate of funds, and the sales side and procurement side will have complete support. The plan allows companies to embrace the "Internet" era of security and reliability.
Large overseas companies have increased in rotation!
Chemours announced on April 11, 2016 that since May 1, 2016, Chemours Ti-PureTM titanium dioxide sold in all regions of the world has been increased by US$150/t. Huntsman announced on April 4 that it will raise the price of titanium dioxide (titanium dioxide) pigments in the world. The price of titanium dioxide (titanium dioxide) pigments in the world will increase by 180 US dollars/ton from April 1, 2016. Tronox announced on March 31, 2016 that, as of April 1, 2016, Teno Titanium Dioxide has been raised worldwide by US$175/t. Ishihara (ISK) announced on March 28, 2016 that since April 1, 2016, the price of titanium dioxide (titanium dioxide) sold in the Asia-Pacific region has been raised by US$150/tonne. Ishihara (ISK) announced on June 23, 2016 that since July 1, 2016, the price of titanium dioxide (titanium dioxide) sold in the Asia-Pacific region has been raised by US$150/tonne.
In 2015, the total output of titanium dioxide in China was 2.323 million tons, which fell for the first time in 17 years
According to the National Chemical Industry Productivity Promotion Center Titanium Divider Center and the Titanium Dioxide Industry Technical Innovation Strategic Alliance secretariat, the company has recently been able to maintain the normal production of 42 large-scale titanium dioxide production enterprises above the scale (including 38 enterprises of sulfuric acid law, 3 Domestic chlorination enterprises, a company that has both sulfuric acid and chlorination processes and does not include surface treatment processing companies, have statistics of total titanium dioxide production of 2.233 million tons in 2015 and over. The 2.345 million tons fell by 112,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. Rutile products were 1,715,200 tons, down 2.4% year-on-year, accounting for 73.8% of total output; anatase products were 417,000 tons, accounting for 18.0%; non-pigment products were 128,000 tons, accounting for 5.5 %; out of stock/nanometer products was 62,900 tons, accounting for 2.7%. This is the first decline in total industry output in the 17 years from 1998 to 2015 (except for the short-term decline in the second half of 2008).
South Korea launched anti-dumping investigation against rutile titanium dioxide
On December 30, 2015, the Korea Trade Commission announced that it had decided to initiate an anti-dumping investigation against rutile titanium dioxide imported from China (Korea Customs No. 3206.11.0000). The applicant for this case was South Korea's COSMO Chemicals. The dumping investigation period was from July 2014 to June 2015. The damage investigation period was from January 2012 to June 2015. According to the analysis of import and export data, Business Club reported that China exported approximately 32,400 tons to Korea in 2014, accounting for 5.86%. In the first 11 months of 2015, the export volume was approximately 38,900 tons, accounting for 8.06%, and the consumption area surpassed that of Brazil and rose to Second, it is bad for the domestic market theory. TSE’s titanium dioxide analyst Yang Xun believes that COSMO Chemicals is the only old manufacturer in Korea. The current production capacity is about 50,000 tons/year, and the production of anatase titanium dioxide is not the first application to China. Titanium dioxide anti-dumping investigations, presumably its survival is also a great threat, based on past experience without judgment, this time is no exception. The Korea Trade Commission informed the Chinese that it had made an initial ruling on the anti-dumping case of rutile titanium dioxide on May 26 and ruled that the dumping margins of Chinese enterprises ranged from 4.02% to 5.11%, but decided not to impose temporary anti-dumping duties on the products involved.
Total exports from January to May 2016 increased by 24.85% year-on-year
According to statistics provided by the General Administration of Customs, China imported 15,904.624 tons of titanium dioxide in May 2016, a year-on-year decrease of 17.91% and an increase of 21.35% compared with the previous period. The average import price was approximately US$2,298.84 per ton. The top three import regions were Taiwan and Australia. In the United States, total imports of titanium dioxide totaled 69,211.44 tons in January-May 2016, a year-on-year decrease of 14.58%. In May 2016, the export of titanium dioxide in China was 71,231.552 tons, an increase of 50.68% year-on-year, an increase of 27.96%, and the average export price was about US$1541.1/ton, of which the top three export countries were India, the United States, and South Korea, from January 2016 to May. Titanium dioxide total exports of 284,623.731 tons, an increase of 24.85%.
Domestic titanium dioxide exports can still rely mainly on price advantage
The favorable export of titanium dioxide is well known. On the one hand, it shows that the demand in overseas markets is still acceptable. On the other hand, China's sulfuric acid products have obvious price advantages. According to statistics provided by the General Administration of Customs, the total exports from January to May 2016 were 284,623.731 tons, the total export value was US$426,950,466, the average export price was about US$1,500/ton, and the average monthly export price was 56,900 tons. It is also for this reason that the international giant’s expectations for price increases in overseas markets are basically frustrated, because the process and quality are low, and domestic titanium dioxide is necessary. The major exporters are manufacturers, while the manufacturers rely on small profits. In order to eat inventories, more profits are mainly compensated by the domestic market, and the pollution remains in the country, while consuming domestic non-renewable resources and making foreign companies cheaper. In fact, for most companies and individuals, there are no major arguments for over-majority. Summarizing it is still a word: reality is always cruel, and the pursuit is always a real interest! Among them, Sichuan Longju is 1- The unit prices for exports in May were 1,45.79 US$/ton, 1464.45 USD/ton, 1472.06 USD/ton, 1491.05 USD/ton and 1526.85 USD/ton respectively. The above data reflected three points: 1. The majority of Longxi's exports were “low pricesâ€. "Large" orders; 2. Its average price for the month is below the overall average price, which has a low average effect; 3. The average monthly increase rate is less than $20/ton, which is inconsistent with the announced figures (January to May). The average increase was US$13.66/ton, US$7.61/ton, US$18.99/ton and US$35.8/ton respectively. Leading companies have obvious advantages such as low cost, good brand effect, and a single discussion mode.
Titanium dioxide price forecast in the second half of 2016
In the first half of 2016, the price trend of titanium dioxide was very “simple and crudeâ€. One word: up! The most important reason was that exports were positively driven, and the producers’ inventory was pulled to make the domestic supply tight. The basic purchase in the face of rigid demand was still tight. The “hard-pull†type of bullish market has continued for half a year. The downstream market has gradually reduced its price acceptance. Most of them have done inventory, and the traditional off-season is approaching. In addition, the semi-annual business impulse makes the market negotiation space become a short-term norm. Chemical branch Titanium dioxide analyst Yang Xun believes: the third quarter curtain opened, the mid-year sales impulse has been completed, the manufacturers are more likely to fight each other, and more to actual pricing according to their own inventory, the actual price of the "hardness "Softening, negotiation space to reproduce." In the short term, in the second half of 2016 or stalemate weakened, the only hope point is “Jin nine silver and tenâ€, but market participants are generally pessimistic about this. Real orders are still dominated by a single proposal of looking at orders, looking at quantities, and looking at forms of payment!
Overall, January-June is a half-year price increase period for titanium dioxide. From January to June, since the beginning of the reverse recovery of titanium dioxide in December 2015, there were a total of 7 surges in prices in the six months of 2016. Take southwest Longqi as an example, 7 cumulative gains were 2,900 yuan/ton, mainly due to foreign trade. Pull stocks, so that the domestic large producers appear to supply tight, boost prices rose 7 consecutively.